It was eight weeks in the past when Morgan Rogers stood on the Sunderland turf, looking confused as Unai Emery admonished him over missing a through-ball. During that period, with the team endured a six-game winless run, it wasn't clear whether his performances were a symptom or the source for the team's wider issues.
“As Rogers swept in his second… Emery ripped off his thick padded coat, spread his arms and roared.”
On Sunday, in contrast, the manager's outburst proved to be much more joyous. After the in-form star drilled in his second to reclaim his side's advantage, the Spanish tactician tore off his jacket, threw his arms wide and shouted in triumph. Villa marched on to ten wins in a row and despite not winning their opening six fixtures, find themselves a mere three points behind table-toppers Arsenal.
Is This Team Serious Title Contenders?
This is an exceptionally difficult question to address. History, the traditional standing of the club, suggests not. Additionally, they have not been completely commanding during this run, despite the fact the positive results have accumulated.
According to the data, twice all season has the side posted an expected goals figure notably superior than the other team. For a club which has strung together 10 in a row, they appear weirdly vulnerable – however right now the tight outcomes are going in their favour.
The Reliant Strategy
The prevailing tactic appears to be to exchange chances with rivals and wait for Rogers to bail them out with two crisp finishes. This was the case away to Leeds, it transpired at West Ham, and it happened against United.
Rogers' first goal originated from a superb shot, curled just inside the upright from the edge of the area. The follow-up goal was essentially a somewhat messier replica of goal number one capitalizing on an Ollie Watkins lay-off.
“Perhaps Rogers’ right foot is becoming like Arjen Robben’s left: just because you know he’s going to whip the ball into the top corner doesn’t mean you can stop him.”
Can It Last?
Reason suggests otherwise. During the latest victory, the opposition managed a greater number of attempts and more efforts on goal. They have triumphed in eight consecutive games by the narrowest of margins. They’ve conceded in all except one of those matches.
Regression to the mean may well be the biggest rival the club have to face in the near future. The forward, surely, will not continue to thrashing the ball into the net's top corner week in, week out.
Reasons for Optimism
Maybe there exists a different scenario whereby, rather than luck running out, the level of play rises to match the results. Key players may yet rediscover their best form.
- The main striker may begin to scoring again.
- The attacking talent might become the player he was during his peak.
- The injured centre-backs are set to return from injury, strengthening a periodically leaky defence.
Perhaps there is in that the potential of a genuine bid, but they surely can continue to depend solely on Morgan Rogers.
Enjoying the Ride
But then, this is a surprise. It seemed improbable Aston Villa would be in a Champions League place in December. And certainly back in October, nobody thought Rogers by the end of the year would be at the forefront of a title charge and appearing as a vital England player.
This winning streak should be enjoyed for the very reason that it seems so surreal. When Rogers stood in front of the North End at the final whistle conducting the cheers, it was clear to be loving the experience. Which he fully merits. These spells do not happen often and ought to be celebrated.
